HUMAN RESOURCE DEMAND FORECASTING PPT

Topics: Forecasting, Future, Human resources Pages: 30 (2491 words) Published: February 20, 2015
1

Forecasting as a Part of Human Resource
Planning
Choose human
resource programs

DEMAND
FORECASTING

Determine
organizational
objectives

Internal programs

External programs

•Promotion

•Recruiting

•Transfer

•External selection

•Career planning

Demand
forecast for
each objective
Aggregate
demand
forecast

SUPPLY
FORECASTING

•Executive
exchange

•Training
•Turnover control
Internal supply forecast

Does aggregate
supply meet
aggregate
No
demand?

External supply forecast

Aggregate supply
forecast

Yes
Go to feasibility analysis steps

2

MAN POWER DEMAND FORECASTING
Long Range
Objectives
& Plans

Overall
Requirements
for human
resources

Short terms goals,
plans, programmes
& budgets

Work force
Requirements by
occupational categories
job skills etc

Inventory of
Present Human
Resources

Inventory by
Occupational
categories
skills,
Demographic
characteristics

Net New
Human Resource
Requirement
Leading to
action planning.
For Recruitment
& Selection
Needed

Procedure for
Evaluating
Effectiveness or
Human
Resources

Needed
Replacement
or additions.
Leading to plans
for developing,
transferring,
recruiting &
selecting
needed people

3

Causes of Demand for Human
Resources

External

Organizational

Workforce

Economic
developments

Strategic plan

Retirements

Budgets

Resignations

Sales &
production
forecasts

Terminations

New ventures

Leaves of
absence

Socialpolitical-legal
challenges
Technological
challenges
Competitors

Organizational
& job design

Deaths

4

HRP and Environmental Scanning
 Environmental Scanning
– The systematic monitoring of the major external forces
influencing the organization.
 Economic factors: general and regional conditions
 Competitive trends: new processes, services, and
innovations
 Technological changes: robotics and office automation
 Political and legislative issues: laws and administrative rulings
 Social concerns: child care and educational priorities
 Demographic trends: age, composition,and literacy
5

Scanning the Internal Environment
 Cultural Audits
– Audits of the culture and quality of work life in an
organization.
 How do employees spend their time?
 How do they interact with each other?
 Are employees empowered?
 What is the predominant leadership style of managers?
 How do employees advance within the organization?
 Benchmarking
– The process of comparing the organization’s processes
and practices with those of other companies.
6

Forecasting HR Requirements
 Estimate of numbers and kinds of employees the organization will need to implement organizational strategies and attain
organizational objectives on future dates.
 Demand for firm’s goods or services must be forecast.
 Involves consideration of alternative ways of organizing jobs (job design, organizational design or staffing jobs)
 Example - Peak production could be handled by temporary
workers or assigning overtime. Machine breakdowns assigned
to maintenance department or handled by machine operators
 Forecast is then converted into people requirements

7

Assumptions of
Social environment
Assumptions of
Political
environment

Business Plans

DEMAND
FORECASTING
Assumptions of
Labor market

Assumptions of
Technology
Conditions
Assumptions of
Economic Trends

Assumptions at the Time of demand Forecasting
8

Time Frame Requirement
basis

Availability

Possible action plans
to meet the
requirements

Less than a
year

Annual budget
(operational
plans)

Existing manpower (by
proper distribution of
workload )
+contractual
manpower

Body shoppers/contractors,
overtime , recruitment on
contractual terms,
restructuring and layoffs.

1-2 Years

Forecasted
Current manpower
budget or forward less projected attrition
budget...
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