Eas External Analysis

Topics: Shopping mall, Economics, Suburb Pages: 35 (12235 words) Published: July 26, 2013
Regional Economic Models, Inc. Economic Impact of Shopping Center Developments Final Report Prepared for

International Council of Shopping Centers
By

REMI Consulting, Inc.
Using

REMI Policy Insight Three-Region EDFS-23 Model
January 9, 2006

306 Lincoln Ave., Amherst, MA 01002 Telephone: (413) 549-1169 Fax: (413) 549-1038 e-mail: info@remi.com © Copyright Regional Economic Models, Inc. 1999-2004. All rights reserved.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS .....................................................................................................2 1. Executive Summary ....................................................................................................3 Major Findings .................................................................................................................................4 2. Methodology & Assumptions ...................................................................................15 2-1 REMI Policy Insight................................................................................................................ 15 2-2 Assumptions............................................................................................................................ 18 2-3 Simulation Inputs ................................................................................................................... 18 3. Results ......................................................................................................................23 About REMI...................................................................................................................28 Appendix ......................................................................................................................29

2

1. Executive Summary
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) contracted Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) to perform an economic assessment of shopping center developments in three regional economies within the United States. A shopping center, as defined by ICSC, is ‘a group of retail and other commercial establishments that is planned, developed, owned and managed as a single property, with on-site parking provided. The center’s size and orientation are generally determined by the market characteristics of the trade area served by the center. The three main physical configurations of shopping centers are malls, open-air centers, and hybrid centers.’1 The focus of the study is on analyzing the economic benefits to these economies of new shopping center development. ICSC supplied REMI with specific details for three economic regions (Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), City Area, Suburb Area)2, and 4 types of shopping centers (Regional Mall, Power Center, Lifestyle Center, and Community Center). Expenditures on construction and equipment during the construction phase, and employment during the operational phase, differed by economic region and type of shopping center3. ICSC asked REMI to model the total economic impacts in three distinct regional economies associated with various levels of site investment and operational employment. To quantify the indirect and induced effects of such developments, REMI captured all direct effects of the developments, including: • • Sales increases to regional construction firms with in-region supply at 100%. Sales increases to local equipment manufacturing firms with in-region supply at 50%.

• Operational employment increases for retail, management, and administrative services. REMI examined the above scenarios using a 23-industry sector, three-region model. While using this model, REMI developed an underlying baseline forecast and thirty-six (36) alternative forecasts for the various economies. Alternative forecasts modeled by REMI show the total net effects of shopping center construction and equipping, and operational employment, independent of one another. Twenty-four (24) of these simulations examined two...
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